Recap:
After degrading Hamas and Hezbollah, Israel now faces an enemy that’s over 1,000 miles away in which it has little intelligence about.
The Context:
· The Houthis are a Shiite rebel group, designated by the US State Department as a terrorist organization [1]. They seized Yemen’s capital in 2014 and survived a years-long Saudi-led campaign aimed at returning the government to power. Today, the Houthis govern northern Yemen while the internationally recognized government rules in the South. With Iranian support, the group is secure in its position both militarily and politically while anti-Houthi factions are weak and divided. The World Health Organization says more than half of Yemen’s population is in desperate need of aid [2].
· The Houthis have launched more than 200 missiles and 170 drones at Israel since October 7th, 2023, when Hamas led an invasion on Israel that killed 1,200 people and saw 251 taken hostage to Gaza.
· Few in Jerusalem believe an attack would stop Houthi strikes aimed at Israel since airstrikes by Israel, the United States, and Britain have had a limited impact on the group [3]. Over the past 10 days, the Houthis launched five ballistic missiles and five drones at Israel - several of which penetrated Israel’s air defense systems, causing damage and injuries [4].
· Unlike other Iran-backed groups, like Hamas and Hezbollah, which were largely subdued by Israel’s retaliatory strikes, the Houthis appear emboldened due in part to their success in imposing themselves as a major player in world affairs [5]. Aside from its attacks on Israel, the Houthis have carried out repeated missile and drone attacks on 100 merchant vessels over the past year in the Red Sea, forcing many carriers to avoid the key waterway and constraining global shipping. Today, ships associated with Russia, China, the United Arab Emirates, and Turkey are among the only vessels that still sail the Red Sea [6]. Port calls in the Red Sea have plummeted 85% since the onset of Houthi attacks on commercial vessels, while Suez Canal traffic has dropped by around 66% [7].
Conversation Points:
· Why haven’t global powers been more forceful in their response to the Houthis?
· Why aren’t the Houthis deterred after seeing what happened to Hamas and Hezbollah?
· Can Israel stop the Houthis without international support?
· Will the Houthi threat be resolved without taking on Iran directly?
Notes:
1. Terrorist Designation of the Houthis, The State Department, January 17th, 2024
2. Could the Houthis be next? Yemenis reflect on the fall of Syria’s al-Assad, Al Jazeera, December 25th, 2024
3. Israel Intercepts Houthi Missile and Threatens Militant Group’s Leaders, New York Times, December 24th, 2024
4. Report: Mossad chief believes Israel should target Iran to get at Houthis; PM disagrees, Times of Israel, December 26th, 2024
5. Ibid.
6. Houthi Shipping Attacks: Patterns and Expectations for 2025, Noam Raydan, Farzin Nadimi, Washington Institute, Dec 16th, 2024
7. Red Sea attacks causing steep drop in port calls, canal traffic, data shows, Global Trade Review, September 17th 2024
Comments